There will be much needless spillage of blood and printers ink in the next few days. Much of the chatter will be the need to avoid another Iraq debacle. But that will not be easy. Our thoughts/fears are briefly as follows.
- Without a strongman who will hold Libya together? Prediction - nobody.
- Will the rebel alliance fall to in-fighting and internal violence? Such is the history of revolutions from the beginning of history. This revolutionary alliance is more loosely and incongruously put together than most.
- Who will emerge as the most coherent and cohesive group? Prediction - the Islamists in one form or another.
- What will the US/NATO say when the chaos descends? 'None of our making'.
- Will the US remain in some capacity to secure access to Libyan oil? Stupid question.
- How will the US/NATO distance itself from the eventual anarchy which they have sponsored and helped to facilitate? Obama's 'Mission Accomplished' speechwriters are already on it.
Maybe we should wait till the war is over bfore we start to learn the lessons. But you are rigtht that revolutions devour their own children first. The West will fuck it up as usual.
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