Why Did Tunisia Vote Islamist?

The old regime persecuted Islamists, locking up its supporters in prisons and brutally torturing them. Many were forced to flee abroad -- including their leader, Ghannushi, who lived in London for 20 years and returning home only in January. Before the revolution, the sight of women wearing headscarves was a rarity on the streets of Tunis and working women, at least in the capital, were everywhere. Ostensibly, the country had a Western face, but the cultural and social divide in the country had always been big and it continued to grow in recent years. On the one side you had the rich Tunisian elite in Tunis, who were often educated in France and tried to emulate the French lifestyle -- sometimes even preferring to speak French over Arabic.On the other, you had the common, mostly conservative population in the country's interior and the capital city's impoverished suburbs. It wasn't the elite who started the revolution and toppled Ben Ali, but rather the young people from the country's poorest regions who were jobless and desperate. It was this group who fought the police for weeks and from whose ranks the largest number of casualties came.

Many of those have now voted for Ennahda. In their eyes, Ennahda embodies everything the previous rulers did not: trust, integrity, they are not corrupt, are morally unobjectionable and the party is socially minded. They were persecuted by Ben Ali, they were outsiders and they didn't profit from the old system. Ennahda also presented the prospect of economic progress based on the Turkish model in its campaign and succeeded in positioning itself as the party most likely to preserve Tunisia's "Arab-Muslim" identity.

Ennahda's success is also a slap in the face to the West and the pro-Western Tunisian elite, whose secular, left-liberal parties achieved mediocre or even disastrous results in some cases. They were unable to connect with the simple rural population, whereas Ennahda enjoyed a massive triumph among these voters. For one, Ennahda was able to reach out to them because it is better organized and financially stronger than other parties. The party has tens of thousands of members around the country, they campaigned relentlessly and it was the only one that succeeded in sending observers to all the polls.

Proponents of secular politics and women's rights in Tunisia are now concerned.It's certain that Islam will have considerable influence in Tunisia in the future. Since the revolution, the sight of the headscarf or men wearing beards has become much more common. There have also been reports of imams being driven out of mosques because they are considered to be too liberal. And one week before the election, a broadcast of the animated film "Persepolis," which includes an image of Allah in defiance of Islamic rules prohibiting his depiction, triggered violent protests.

Paradoxically, Tunisia has always been one of the most liberal Muslim countries. It's populace is mostly conservative, but it is not considered deeply religious and it is thoroughly influenced by European ideas. It's a country that is also dependent on tourists and foreign investment and the Islamists will neither wish to, nor can it afford to, scare them away.

Ennahda won't be able to govern alone.A party spokesman indicated Ennahda will seek to form a national unity government. The majority of Tunisians didn't vote for the party and it will likely have to seek partners from the ranks of the secular parties in order to form a coalition government. Ennahda leaders have already begun holding the first talks -- prior even to the announcement of the final election results. They have named Secretary General Hamadi Jebali as a candidate for prime minister, but stated they would not name one for president.

Troubled times lie ahead not just for the Tunisians but for neighbouring Algeria which mirrors Tunisia in many ways.