Iraq And Syria

If post-authoritarianism in Syria evolves along the lines of post-authoritarian Iraq, civil war between Alawites and Sunnis will become unavoidable in Syria. In Iraq the civil war took place between Shiites and Sunnis. Sunnis lost the war after hundreds of thousands were killed between 2004 and 2008. Today Iraq is dominated by pro-Iran Shiites. Iraqi Sunnis feel sidelined and insecure. Similar dynamics will emerge in Syria. Just like post-authoritarian Iraq has become a Shiite regime, post-authoritarian Syria will emerge as a Sunni regime. As in Iraq, the price to pay for the emergence of majority-rule will be civil war. Tens of thousands of deaths and casualties are likely in Syria in the next few years. And eventually, when a Sunni-regime emerges, the Alawites will feel victimized, sidelined and insecure.More