Chaos Remains King In Iraq

Our friends at Reality Zone are involved in the same thankless task as ourselves in trying to unravel the complex web of intrigue around Iraq and its neighbours in the Middle East. Thus RZ:
'Iran/U.S. back Maliki. al-Sadr is the king maker. 
So what is there is a major deal struck? 
U.S. semi-stays in Iraq.
Iran is guaranteed no attack, and can go ahead with nuclear energy.
Iran backs an Israeli/Palestine peace plan. 
Israel freezes settlements, gives up the West Bank, and the Golan Heights. 
Guarantees no further encroachment on Lebanon. Jerusalem stays an open city. 
Palestinians recognize Israel? 
Could this be a start? The U.S. will not be able to put a govt. in place for Iraq with out the help of Iran?'
Not inconceivable in our view although the scenario would require more magnanimity and vision from Israel than they have shown hitherto.
But the depth and scale of the chaos which the occupation has sown for now and the future could stultify anything that anyone plans for the future. There are many barometers of it. The principal one, to us, is the total confusion and obfuscation around the degree of the carnage and instability which the occupation is responsible for unleashing. It is impossible for anything to be fixed or rebuilt if the extent of the substantive damage is not,or is wrongly, gauged in the first place. We know, by the standards ordinarily used to establish such things, that the Iraq Body Count partial tally is not an accurate measure of the magnitude of the Iraqi death toll, for example.In January 2008 the World Health Organization reported the results of the "Iraq Family Health Survey," published in the New England Journal of Medicine. The WHO study estimated 151,000 deaths due to violence, with a 95% confidence interval of 104,000 to 223,000, from March 2003 through June 2006. About the discrepancy, the WHO said at the time:
"Our survey estimate is three times higher than the death toll detected through screening of media reports by the Iraq Body Count project and about four times lower than a smaller-scale household survey conducted earlier in 2006," The latter reference is to the Johns Hopkins/Lancet study, which estimated a death toll due to violence four times higher, as the WHO official stated. If the Lancet numbers estimate were correct, then the Iraq Body Count number is 12 times too small. It is worth emphasising the WHO study because it makes a stronger argument that using the Iraq Body Count partial tally as if it were a picture of the magnitude of the overall death toll is very wrong. The Lancet numbers have been disputed as too high. The WHO numbers have been disputed as too low, but as far as I am aware, no serious critic claims that they are too high.
I am convinced, having followed the events every day since the invasion, that the death toll must be half a million at a conservative estimate. The displacement levels, which the war cheerleaders never mention, is impartially estimated at between 1.5 and 3 million with the resultant chaos being felt not just in Iraq but in Syria and Jordan as well as Iraq. The legacy of disease, mental illness and social dissolution have been dealt with in previous posts here and on Reality Zone.

Throw in to the witches brew the elements of self-interest emanating from Turkey, Russia and China in addition to those pointed out by Reality Zone, and the future looks apocalyptic if you are an ordinary Iraqi.

Stop Press - Tony Blair's book appears to be selling well.